TechAnalyzer ProSell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur? A data check — plus stock market seasonality
"Sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur" is one of the oldest sayings on Wall Street. Instead of arguing about it, we tested it on every year of data we have — alongside seasonality by month and what happened after readings of our Fear & Greed Index. The data updates automatically (last update: Oct 31, 2026).
S&P 500: from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur
We tested 80 years: sell at the close of the last trading day before Rosh Hashanah, buy back at the close of the first trading day after Yom Kippur — a window of about 8 trading days.
Bottom line: the holiday window was weaker than an ordinary window of the same length — declines were more common and the average change was lower. Still, in most years the difference is small, and commissions and taxes on selling and buying back eat into it. Over the past 25 years: a decline in 46% of years, an average change of -0.42% (vs. 40% and +0.26% in an ordinary window).
| Year | Sell | Buy | Index change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +1.41% |
| 2025 | Sep 22, 2025 | Oct 3, 2025 | +0.33% |
| 2024 | Oct 2, 2024 | Oct 14, 2024 | +2.63% |
| 2023 | Sep 15, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | -3.97% |
| 2022 | Sep 23, 2022 | Oct 6, 2022 | +1.39% |
| 2021 | Sep 3, 2021 | Sep 17, 2021 | -2.26% |
| 2020 | Sep 18, 2020 | Sep 29, 2020 | +0.48% |
| 2019 | Sep 27, 2019 | Oct 10, 2019 | -0.80% |
| 2018 | Sep 7, 2018 | Sep 20, 2018 | +2.06% |
| 2017 | Sep 20, 2017 | Oct 2, 2017 | +0.83% |
All 80 years
| Year | Sell | Buy | Index change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Sep 30, 2016 | Oct 13, 2016 | -1.65% |
| 2015 | Sep 11, 2015 | Sep 24, 2015 | -1.47% |
| 2014 | Sep 24, 2014 | Oct 6, 2014 | -1.68% |
| 2013 | Sep 4, 2013 | Sep 16, 2013 | +2.69% |
| 2012 | Sep 14, 2012 | Sep 27, 2012 | -1.27% |
| 2011 | Sep 28, 2011 | Oct 10, 2011 | +3.81% |
| 2010 | Sep 8, 2010 | Sep 20, 2010 | +3.99% |
| 2009 | Sep 18, 2009 | Sep 29, 2009 | -0.72% |
| 2008 | Sep 29, 2008 | Oct 10, 2008 | -18.73% |
| 2007 | Sep 12, 2007 | Sep 24, 2007 | +3.14% |
| 2006 | Sep 22, 2006 | Oct 3, 2006 | +1.47% |
| 2005 | Oct 3, 2005 | Oct 14, 2005 | -3.27% |
| 2004 | Sep 15, 2004 | Sep 27, 2004 | -1.50% |
| 2003 | Sep 26, 2003 | Oct 7, 2003 | +4.25% |
| 2002 | Sep 6, 2002 | Sep 17, 2002 | -2.28% |
| 2001 | Sep 17, 2001 | Sep 28, 2001 | +0.21% |
| 2000 | Sep 29, 2000 | Oct 10, 2000 | -3.45% |
| 1999 | Sep 10, 1999 | Sep 21, 1999 | -3.26% |
| 1998 | Sep 18, 1998 | Oct 1, 1998 | -3.30% |
| 1997 | Oct 1, 1997 | Oct 13, 1997 | +1.33% |
| 1996 | Sep 13, 1996 | Sep 24, 1996 | +0.74% |
| 1995 | Sep 22, 1995 | Oct 5, 1995 | +0.15% |
| 1994 | Sep 2, 1994 | Sep 16, 1994 | +0.04% |
| 1993 | Sep 15, 1993 | Sep 27, 1993 | +0.04% |
| 1992 | Sep 25, 1992 | Oct 8, 1992 | -1.59% |
| 1991 | Sep 6, 1991 | Sep 19, 1991 | -0.40% |
| 1990 | Sep 19, 1990 | Oct 1, 1990 | -0.52% |
| 1989 | Sep 29, 1989 | Oct 10, 1989 | +2.86% |
| 1988 | Sep 9, 1988 | Sep 22, 1988 | +0.88% |
| 1987 | Sep 23, 1987 | Oct 5, 1987 | +2.15% |
| 1986 | Oct 3, 1986 | Oct 14, 1986 | +0.71% |
| 1985 | Sep 13, 1985 | Sep 26, 1985 | -0.89% |
| 1984 | Sep 26, 1984 | Oct 8, 1984 | -2.50% |
| 1983 | Sep 7, 1983 | Sep 19, 1983 | -0.20% |
| 1982 | Sep 17, 1982 | Sep 28, 1982 | +0.56% |
| 1981 | Sep 28, 1981 | Oct 9, 1981 | +5.12% |
| 1980 | Sep 10, 1980 | Sep 22, 1980 | +4.48% |
| 1979 | Sep 21, 1979 | Oct 2, 1979 | -0.80% |
| 1978 | Sep 29, 1978 | Oct 12, 1978 | +2.28% |
| 1977 | Sep 12, 1977 | Sep 23, 1977 | -1.03% |
| 1976 | Sep 24, 1976 | Oct 5, 1976 | -3.34% |
| 1975 | Sep 5, 1975 | Sep 16, 1975 | -4.12% |
| 1974 | Sep 16, 1974 | Sep 27, 1974 | -1.99% |
| 1973 | Sep 26, 1973 | Oct 8, 1973 | +1.29% |
| 1972 | Sep 8, 1972 | Sep 19, 1972 | -1.45% |
| 1971 | Sep 17, 1971 | Sep 30, 1971 | -1.62% |
| 1970 | Sep 30, 1970 | Oct 12, 1970 | -0.15% |
| 1969 | Sep 12, 1969 | Sep 23, 1969 | +1.59% |
| 1968 | Sep 20, 1968 | Oct 3, 1968 | +1.53% |
| 1967 | Oct 4, 1967 | Oct 16, 1967 | -1.22% |
| 1966 | Sep 14, 1966 | Sep 26, 1966 | -1.60% |
| 1965 | Sep 24, 1965 | Oct 7, 1965 | +0.50% |
| 1964 | Sep 4, 1964 | Sep 17, 1964 | +1.24% |
| 1963 | Sep 18, 1963 | Sep 30, 1963 | -1.51% |
| 1962 | Sep 28, 1962 | Oct 9, 1962 | +1.65% |
| 1961 | Sep 8, 1961 | Sep 21, 1961 | -1.31% |
| 1960 | Sep 21, 1960 | Oct 3, 1960 | -2.22% |
| 1959 | Oct 2, 1959 | Oct 13, 1959 | -0.07% |
| 1958 | Sep 12, 1958 | Sep 25, 1958 | +2.14% |
| 1957 | Sep 25, 1957 | Oct 7, 1957 | -1.77% |
| 1956 | Sep 5, 1956 | Sep 17, 1956 | -1.92% |
| 1955 | Sep 16, 1955 | Sep 27, 1955 | -3.35% |
| 1954 | Sep 27, 1954 | Oct 8, 1954 | +0.43% |
| 1953 | Sep 9, 1953 | Sep 21, 1953 | -3.26% |
| 1952 | Sep 19, 1952 | Sep 30, 1952 | -0.12% |
| 1951 | Sep 28, 1951 | Oct 11, 1951 | +1.89% |
| 1950 | Sep 11, 1950 | Sep 22, 1950 | +4.46% |
| 1949 | Sep 23, 1949 | Oct 4, 1949 | +1.16% |
| 1948 | Oct 1, 1948 | Oct 14, 1948 | +3.00% |
| 1947 | Sep 12, 1947 | Sep 25, 1947 | -0.60% |
A negative change means selling for the holidays avoided a decline; a positive one means missing a gain. Excludes commissions, taxes and dividends.
TA-125: from Rosh Hashanah to Yom Kippur
We tested 34 years: sell at the close of the last trading day before Rosh Hashanah, buy back at the close of the first trading day after Yom Kippur — a window of about 5 trading days.
Bottom line: the holiday window was not weaker than an ordinary window of the same length — the saying doesn't hold up in the data, and on average those who sold for the holidays gained nothing. Over the past 25 years: a decline in 35% of years, an average change of +0.18% (vs. 44% and +0.20% in an ordinary window).
| Year | Sell | Buy | Index change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 22, 2026 | +1.26% |
| 2025 | Sep 21, 2025 | Oct 5, 2025 | +7.89% |
| 2024 | Oct 1, 2024 | Oct 13, 2024 | +0.61% |
| 2023 | Sep 14, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | -0.22% |
| 2022 | Sep 22, 2022 | Oct 6, 2022 | -3.34% |
| 2021 | Sep 5, 2021 | Sep 19, 2021 | +1.53% |
| 2020 | Sep 17, 2020 | Sep 29, 2020 | -1.83% |
| 2019 | Sep 26, 2019 | Oct 10, 2019 | +0.17% |
| 2018 | Sep 6, 2018 | Sep 20, 2018 | +2.34% |
| 2017 | Sep 19, 2017 | Oct 1, 2017 | +0.41% |
All 34 years
| Year | Sell | Buy | Index change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Sep 29, 2016 | Oct 13, 2016 | -1.60% |
| 2015 | Sep 10, 2015 | Sep 24, 2015 | -4.46% |
| 2014 | Sep 23, 2014 | Oct 5, 2014 | +0.84% |
| 2013 | Sep 3, 2013 | Sep 15, 2013 | +2.78% |
| 2012 | Sep 13, 2012 | Sep 27, 2012 | +4.24% |
| 2011 | Sep 27, 2011 | Oct 9, 2011 | -3.28% |
| 2010 | Sep 7, 2010 | Sep 19, 2010 | +1.51% |
| 2009 | Sep 17, 2009 | Sep 29, 2009 | +4.18% |
| 2008 | Sep 28, 2008 | Oct 12, 2008 | -14.96% |
| 2007 | Sep 11, 2007 | Sep 23, 2007 | +4.58% |
| 2006 | Sep 21, 2006 | Oct 3, 2006 | +2.19% |
| 2005 | Oct 2, 2005 | Oct 16, 2005 | -1.64% |
| 2004 | Sep 14, 2004 | Sep 26, 2004 | +0.24% |
| 2003 | Sep 25, 2003 | Oct 7, 2003 | +1.19% |
| 2002 | Sep 5, 2002 | Sep 17, 2002 | +2.15% |
| 2001 | Sep 16, 2001 | Sep 30, 2001 | -2.03% |
| 2000 | Sep 28, 2000 | Oct 10, 2000 | -7.92% |
| 1999 | Sep 9, 1999 | Sep 21, 1999 | +3.77% |
| 1998 | Sep 17, 1998 | Oct 1, 1998 | -6.06% |
| 1997 | Sep 30, 1997 | Oct 12, 1997 | +3.07% |
| 1996 | Sep 12, 1996 | Sep 24, 1996 | +4.06% |
| 1995 | Sep 21, 1995 | Oct 5, 1995 | -2.85% |
| 1994 | Sep 4, 1994 | Sep 18, 1994 | +4.01% |
| 1993 | Sep 14, 1993 | Sep 27, 1993 | +2.10% |
A negative change means selling for the holidays avoided a decline; a positive one means missing a gain. Excludes commissions, taxes and dividends.
Stock market seasonality by month
The index return in each calendar month — the S&P 500 since 1947 and the TA-125 since 1992. On average the S&P 500's best month is November (+1.62%) and its weakest is September (-0.62%). September: an average of -0.62%, positive in 44% of years — versus 60% for the average month. The current month is highlighted in the table.
| Month | S&P 500 average | S&P % positive | S&P last 20 years | TA-125 average | TA-125 % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | +1.01% | 61% | +0.29% | +0.63% | 56% |
| February | -0.15% | 52% | -0.09% | +0.31% | 65% |
| March | +1.08% | 65% | +0.87% | +0.12% | 56% |
| April | +1.51% | 70% | +2.29% | +2.98% | 74% |
| May | +0.46% | 61% | +0.75% | +1.12% | 62% |
| June | +0.25% | 55% | +0.10% | -1.30% | 26% |
| July | +1.30% | 60% | +2.32% | +1.73% | 68% |
| August | +0.06% | 56% | +0.27% | -0.13% | 47% |
| September | -0.62% | 44% | -0.50% | +0.58% | 65% |
| October | +1.01% | 61% | +0.99% | +0.30% | 67% |
| November | +1.62% | 68% | +2.09% | +2.35% | 76% |
| December | +1.48% | 73% | +0.59% | +2.28% | 68% |
A decades-long average hides a wide spread: the same month has seen years of +10% and years of −10%. Seasonality is background, not a signal.
What the S&P 500 did after our Fear & Greed Index
Today our index reads 25 — Fear. For every day since Oct 19, 2023 (761 trading days): which zone the index was in, and what the S&P 500 did over the following month and three months. For comparison, the average month over the whole period: +1.74%, positive 74% of the time.
| Zone | Days | 1 month later | % positive | 3 months later | % positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme fear | 94 | +3.06% | 68% | +9.28% | 87% |
| Fear | 146 | +0.82% | 66% | +3.96% | 78% |
| Neutral | 172 | +1.65% | 76% | +3.92% | 83% |
| Greed | 289 | +1.85% | 78% | +4.69% | 92% |
| Extreme greed | 39 | +1.55% | 80% | +5.40% | 87% |
A short sample (a little over two years), and neighboring days overlap — these numbers describe what happened; they are not a forecast.
Market falling? When the market falls: how far the indices are from their highs, how long every past decline took to recover, and what happened next.