TechAnalyzer Pro12-1 momentum portfolio — paper track record
The 10 S&P 500 stocks with the highest 12-month return (skipping the most recent month), equal weight, rebalanced at the start of every month. Two versions side by side: one always invested, and one with a regime switch that moves to cash when SPY is below its 10-month average. The rule is locked in advance and everything is recorded — including what doesn't work.
Pure version — always invested
The same 10-stock rule every month, regardless of market conditions.
| Stock | Shares | Cost | Now | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 15 | 631.84 | 504.80 | -20.11% |
| BE | 34 | 291.91 | 203.17 | -30.40% |
| DELL | 17 | 585.67 | 424.30 | -27.55% |
| INTC | 85 | 117.06 | 65.76 | -43.82% |
| LITE | 9 | 1099.80 | 840.70 | -23.56% |
| MRNA | 49 | 202.13 | 221.72 | +9.69% |
| MU | 9 | 1064.48 | 884.74 | -16.89% |
| SNDK | 5 | 1700.00 | 1150.89 | -32.30% |
| STX | 11 | 856.62 | 644.58 | -24.75% |
| WDC | 23 | 426.94 | 366.11 | -14.25% |
Cash: $3,517 · cumulative turnover: $96,434 · cumulative costs: $48
Rebalances
- Oct 6, 2026 · invested · 10 buys, 0 sells · turnover $96,434 · costs $48 · SNDK, MRNA, MU, LITE, DELL, WDC, STX, AMD, BE, INTC
Regime version — cash when the market is below its 10-month average
Same ranking; on rebalance day it checks whether SPY closed the month above the average of its previous 10 month-end closes.
| Stock | Shares | Cost | Now | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 15 | 631.84 | 504.80 | -20.11% |
| BE | 34 | 291.91 | 203.17 | -30.40% |
| DELL | 17 | 585.67 | 424.30 | -27.55% |
| INTC | 85 | 117.06 | 65.76 | -43.82% |
| LITE | 9 | 1099.80 | 840.70 | -23.56% |
| MRNA | 49 | 202.13 | 221.72 | +9.69% |
| MU | 9 | 1064.48 | 884.74 | -16.89% |
| SNDK | 5 | 1700.00 | 1150.89 | -32.30% |
| STX | 11 | 856.62 | 644.58 | -24.75% |
| WDC | 23 | 426.94 | 366.11 | -14.25% |
Cash: $3,517 · cumulative turnover: $96,434 · cumulative costs: $48
Rebalances
- Oct 6, 2026 · invested · 10 buys, 0 sells · turnover $96,434 · costs $48 · SNDK, MRNA, MU, LITE, DELL, WDC, STX, AMD, BE, INTC
What would my money be worth?
Everything in the portfolio is relative to the paper capital, so your amount is scaled by the same ratios.
| Where | Worth today | Gain / loss | Est. tax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pure version | — | — | — |
| Regime version | — | — | — |
| SPY (the index) | — | — | — |
| RSP (equal weight) | — | — | — |
From the same start date (Oct 6, 2026), at the same prices and costs; estimated tax = 25% of realized gains, pro rata. Paper only.
The rule
- Universe: the S&P 500 constituents on the rebalance day.
- Score: the past 12 months' return excluding the most recent month (the close 21 trading days ago divided by the close 252 trading days ago).
- The 10 highest-scoring stocks, equal weight; a full rebalance at the open on the first trading day of every month.
- Whole shares, 0.05% cost per side, $100,000 starting capital (paper).
- Regime version: invested only when SPY's latest month-end close is above the average of its previous 10 month-end closes; otherwise cash.
- Benchmarks: SPY and RSP (the equal-weight S&P 500), from the same start date.
- The rule does not change while it is being measured. Yardstick: 12 months, return after costs and estimated tax vs. SPY, and maximum drawdown.
Why 10 stocks and not 50: an owner's decision. Ten stocks means high concentration and possible sector bets — that is part of what is being measured here. Past results of the rule are deliberately not shown: they were measured on today's list of stocks (survivorship bias). The 25% tax is an estimate based on Israeli capital-gains tax.